Alternative Futures for Telluride

study components

ECONOMIC AND DEMOGRAPHIC PROJECTIONS
VISUAL PREFERENCE MODEL
ATTRACTIVENESS MODELS
GEOGRAPHIC AND POLICY CONSTRAINTS
ALLOCATING NEW HOUSING ON THE LANDSCAPE

ECONOMIC AND DEMOGRAPHIC PROJECTIONS
The primary source of economic and demographic growth in the Telluride region will be driven by tourism and the demand for high end housing, principally second homes. Natural resource extraction may also play an important role in bringing new workers to the region.

Population growth estimates predict annualized growth of between 2-3% over the next two decades in the study region which would bring the current population of approximately 13,000 people to over 20,000. While the study area can accommodate such growth in population, the more difficult questions center on the social, cultural and environmental impacts of a growing population, particularly the impact on housing markets, dislocation of current residents and distribution of new housing in the region.

Population growth is linked both to new economic opportunities and new housing demands. In this study, we measure population and housing by the household unit, and estimate growth for three types of households: full-time residents, part-time employee residents and part-time recreational residents, which are in most cases second home owners. The demand for housing by second home owners is not only among the most important engines of growth in the region but also a factor that is subject to considerable uncertainty.

The economic and demographic projections start with a base growth rate for each of the areas over the next two decades. We then vary the growth rate based on tourism and the demand for second homes. The sum of these projections then determine total employment for the region and induced growth as workers are attracted to the region. These jobs are filled by a combination of full-time and seasonal workers.

Based on historic figures, we posit an annual net demand for second homes owners from between 100 and 250 units per year.

VISUAL PREFERENCE MODEL
Given the primacy of the visual quality in the economic success of the region, understanding the impacts due to changes in the visual character of the landscape are of vital importance to the area. In order to model these possible changes and impacts, a visual model is estimated based on personal interviews, visual evaluation of the existing landscape and regression analysis.

ATTRACTIVENESS MODELS
Several factors contribute to land value in the Telluride region and attractiveness for development. These include proximity to recreation areas, particularly skiing, proximity to commercial centers, access to roads and transport, access to work, views from the house, open space in area, historical attributes, and the social and cultural characteristics of the area. For this study, we use GIS tools and statistical analysis to estimate a housing attractiveness model based on prior development and housing values in the region. This model in turn guides the sequence of development in the study, each housing development being allocated to the next area of highest attractiveness.

GEOGRAPHIC AND POLICY CONSTRAINTS
Several policy and geographic constraints will also inform the modeling process, preventing development in particular areas despite the inherent attractiveness for development. Zoning laws and density restrictions, for example, constraint the amount of development permitted. Several other restrictions may apply, including critical viewsheds, public lands and areas at risk of landslides and avalanches. [maps?]

ALLOCATING NEW HOUSING ON THE LANDSCAPE
The allocation of housing follows a simple sequence that reflects willingness to pay, with second home owners choosing first from the most desirable properties. Full-time residents then select from the remaining available properties. Depending on the level of demand and the supply of new development as dictated by policy choices, there may be insufficient housing in the most attractive areas to house both second home owners and full-time residents, particularly in the immediate Telluride and Mountain Village area where most the jobs are located. In this situation, existing residents are induced to move to less desirable locations farther from their workplace, following a process of dislocation that has been happening in the region for more than a decade.
Policy makers in the region have been attempting to reverse this gentrification process by building subsidized housing for residents of the region. Unfortunately, the creation of subsidized housing has not kept pace with the displacement induced by the demand for high end housing. The modeling process will incorporate the impact of different levels of subsidized housing on the relocation process. We assume the addition of new units ranging from ##, at the low end, to ##, at the high end, each year.
The net result of this modeling will estimate the future distribution of different types of households in region.




study components ECONOMIC AND DEMOGRAPHIC PROJECTIONS VISUAL PREFERENCE MODEL ATTRACTIVENESS MODELS GEOGRAPHIC AND POLICY CONSTRAINTS ALLOCATING NEW HOUSING ON THE LANDSCAPE ECONOMIC AND DEMOGRAPHIC PROJECTIONS The primary source of economic and demographic growth in the Telluride region will be driven by tourism and the demand for high end housing, principally second homes. Natural resource extraction may also play an important role in bringing new workers to the region. Population growth estimates predict annualized growth of between 2-3% over the next two decades in the study region which would bring the current population of approximately 13,000 people to over 20,000. While the study area can accommodate such growth in population, the more difficult questions center on the social, cultural and environmental impacts of a growing population, particularly the impact on housing markets, dislocation of current residents and distribution of new housing in the region. Population growth is linked both to new economic opportunities and new housing demands. In this study, we measure population and housing by the household unit, and estimate growth for three types of households: full-time residents, part-time employee residents and part-time recreational residents, which are in most cases second home owners. The demand for housing by second home owners is not only among the most important engines of growth in the region but also a factor that is subject to considerable uncertainty. The economic and demographic projections start with a base growth rate for each of the areas over the next two decades. We then vary the growth rate based on tourism and the demand for second homes. The sum of these projections then determine total employment for the region and induced growth as workers are attracted to the region. These jobs are filled by a combination of full-time and seasonal workers. Based on historic figures, we posit an annual net demand for second homes owners from between 100 and 250 units per year. VISUAL PREFERENCE MODEL Given the primacy of the visual quality in the economic success of the region, understanding the impacts due to changes in the visual character of the landscape are of vital importance to the area. In order to model these possible changes and impacts, a visual model is estimated based on personal interviews, visual evaluation of the existing landscape and regression analysis. ATTRACTIVENESS MODELS Several factors contribute to land value in the Telluride region and attractiveness for development. These include proximity to recreation areas, particularly skiing, proximity to commercial centers, access to roads and transport, access to work, views from the house, open space in area, historical attributes, and the social and cultural characteristics of the area. For this study, we use GIS tools and statistical analysis to estimate a housing attractiveness model based on prior development and housing values in the region. This model in turn guides the sequence of development in the study, each housing development being allocated to the next area of highest attractiveness. GEOGRAPHIC AND POLICY CONSTRAINTS Several policy and geographic constraints will also inform the modeling process, preventing development in particular areas despite the inherent attractiveness for development. Zoning laws and density restrictions, for example, constraint the amount of development permitted. Several other restrictions may apply, including critical viewsheds, public lands and areas at risk of landslides and avalanches. [maps?] ALLOCATING NEW HOUSING ON THE LANDSCAPE The allocation of housing follows a simple sequence that reflects willingness to pay, with second home owners choosing first from the most desirable properties. Full-time residents then select from the remaining available properties. Depending on the level of demand and the supply of new development as dictated by policy choices, there may be insufficient housing in the most attractive areas to house both second home owners and full-time residents, particularly in the immediate Telluride and Mountain Village area where most the jobs are located. In this situation, existing residents are induced to move to less desirable locations farther from their workplace, following a process of dislocation that has been happening in the region for more than a decade. Policy makers in the region have been attempting to reverse this gentrification process by building subsidized housing for residents of the region. Unfortunately, the creation of subsidized housing has not kept pace with the displacement induced by the demand for high end housing. The modeling process will incorporate the impact of different levels of subsidized housing on the relocation process. We assume the addition of new units ranging from ##, at the low end, to ##, at the high end, each year. The net result of this modeling will estimate the future distribution of different types of households in region.

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